Jul 4
/
Luiz Fernando G. Roque
Acreage 2025 points to smaller soybean and corn areas, but weather and conditions remain good in the US
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* Acreage points to smaller areas for soybean and corn, but with no impact on Chicago
* North American crop conditions remain at good levels: corn reaches best index since 2018
* Weather should continue to be favorable in the coming weeks
Acreage 2025: soybean and corn areas reduced, while wheat area increased
The USDA's expected "Acreage" report for the 2025/26 US crop, released on June 30, focused the market's attention, but had little impact on the direction of soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts traded in Chicago.
This report is surrounded by expectations because it has the potential to bring important changes to the areas planted in the US regarding the "Prospective Plantings" report released in March, since the June report is the first to bring post-planting period estimates.
Despite expectations, the report brought little change, which resulted in figures considered relatively neutral for Chicago, even with some adjustments in opposite directions to those expected by the market.
US Acreage 2025 - in million acres
US Acreage 2025 - in million acres
Source: Reuters, Hedgepoint
US Acreage 2025 vs March vs Market Expectations - in million acres
US Acreage 2025 vs March vs Market Expectations - in million acres
Source: Reuters, Hedgepoint
On the corn side, the average market expectation pointed to an area of 95.350 million acres, slightly higher than the March report (95.326 million acres). However, the USDA indicated an area of 95.203 million acres, down regarding March. Even with a different bias than expected, there were no major impacts in Chicago, as the production potential should still point to a record crop in the 2025/26 season.
Regarding soybeans, while the market expected an area of 83.655 million acres, higher than in March (83.495 million acres), the USDA indicated an area of 83.380 million acres, also a cut from the first estimate. As with corn, despite the different bias than expected, the new figure had little impact on Chicago, even with a possible small reduction in US production potential, which at the moment already points to lower production than in the 2024/25 season.
In the case of wheat, the market was expecting an area of 45.438 million acres, slightly higher than in March (45.350 million acres). The USDA confirmed the upward bias, but gave an area of 45.478 million acres, higher than expected. The new figure also had little impact on Chicago.
In general, the Planted Area report continued to point to smaller soybean and wheat areas and a larger corn area regarding the 2024/25 season, with no major changes to current production estimates.
Going forward, the market should closely monitor the weather for the development of the new crop, paying special attention to the condition of North American crops over the next 60 days.
US Crop Conditions: the index improves for corn and remains stable for soybeans
US Crop Conditions: the index improves for corn and remains stable for soybeans
The USDA's weekly crop conditions update for the 2025/26 season indicated a significant improvement in the corn indices and stability in the soybean indices in the last week of June, drawing the market's attention.
According to the USDA, as of June 29 73% of corn crops were in good or excellent condition, the best rate this season and the best rate since the 2018/19 season for this time of year. Last week, the percentage was 70%. At the same time last year, the percentage was 67%. For now, current levels point to a full and possibly record crop this season, which supports the "bearish" sentiment for Chicago in the coming weeks.
US Corn - Crop Conditions - as of June 29 - in %
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
US Corn Conditions - Top 10 Key States and US - as of June 29 - in %
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
Regarding soybeans, the USDA indicated that 66% of US crops were in good or excellent condition. In the previous week, the percentage was also 66%, while in the same period last year the percentage was 67%. It's noteworthy that while corn saw an improvement, soybean rates remained unchanged. At the moment, current levels indicate a crop without major problems, but with room for reductions in the production potential currently estimated by the USDA.
US Soybeans - Crop Conditions - as of June 29 - in %
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
US Soybeans Conditions - Top 10 Key States and US - as of June 29 - in %
Source: USDA, Hedgepoint
Weather: regularity and positive forecasts for the next two weeks
Weather: regularity and positive forecasts for the next two weeks
The weather situation continues to be considered very positive in the North American producing belt, providing a favorable environment for crop development.
This past week, between June 29 and July 5, rainfall was recorded in most of the main producing states, which could result in an improvement in the conditions of soybean and corn crops in the next USDA update (Monday, July 7).
Weather Map - Accumulated Precipitation - June 29 to July 5 - in mm
Source: NOAA
The forecast maps now point to a period of significant humidity throughout the producing belt between July 6 and 12, which should once again bring a good environment for crops.
In the period between July 13 and 19, the rains should continue to hit the entire belt, but at lower levels than in the previous week.
Weather Map - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast - July 6 to 12 - in mm
Source: NOAA
Weather Map - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast - July 13 to 19 - in mm
Source: NOAA
Market Intelligence - Grains and Oilseeds
Written by Luiz F. Roque
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com
Written by Luiz F. Roque
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com
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This page has been prepared by Hedgepoint Schweiz AG and its affiliates (“Hedgepoint”) solely for informational and instructional purposes, without the purpose of instituting obligations or commitments to third parties, nor is it intended to promote an offer, or solicitation of an offer of sale or purchase relating to any securities, commodities interests or investment products. Hedgepoint and its associates expressly disclaim any use of the information contained herein that directly or indirectly result in damages or damages of any kind. Information is obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. The trading of commodities interests such as futures, options, and swaps involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider wither such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Customers should rely on their own independent judgement and/or advisors before entering in any transaction.Hedgepoint does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.Hedgepoint Schweiz AG is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Switzerland, is filiated to ARIF, the Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers, which is a FINMA-authorized Self-Regulatory Organization. Hedgepoint Commodities LLC is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of the USA, and is authorized and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) to act as an Introducing Broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. HedgePoint Global Markets Limited is Regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. The content is directed at Professional Clients and not Retail Clients. Hedgepoint Global Markets PTE. Ltd is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Singapore, exempted from obtaining a financial services license as per the Second Schedule of the Securities and Futures (Licensing and Conduct of Business) Act, by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Hedgepoint Global Markets DTVM Ltda. is authorized and regulated in Brazil by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and the Brazilian Securities Commission (CVM). Hedgepoint Serviços Ltda. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Brazil. Hedgepoint Global Markets S.A. is organized, incorporated, and existing under the laws of Uruguay. In case of questions not resolved by the first instance of customer contact (client.services@Hedgepointglobal.com), please contact internal ombudsman channel (ombudsman@hedgepointglobal.com – global or ouvidoria@hedgepointglobal.com – Brazil only) or call 0800-8788408 (Brazil only).Integrity, ethics, and transparency are values that guide our culture. To further strengthen our practices, Hedgepoint has a whistleblower channel for employees and third-parties by e-mail ethicline@hedgepointglobal.com or forms Ethic Line – Hedgepoint Global Markets.Security note: All contacts with customers and partners are conducted exclusively through our domain @hedgepointglobal.com. Do not accept any information, bills, statements or requests from different domains and pay special attention to any variations in letters or spelling, as they may indicate a fraudulent situation.“HedgePoint” and the “HedgePoint” logo are marks for the exclusive use of HedgePoint and/or its affiliates. Use or reproduction is prohibited, unless expressly authorized by HedgePoint. Furthermore, the use of any other marks in this document has been authorized for identification purposes only. It does not, therefore, imply any rights of HedgePoint in these marks or imply endorsement, association or seal by the owners of these marks with HedgePoint or its affiliates.