Jul 4 / Luiz Fernando G. Roque

Acreage 2025 points to smaller soybean and corn areas, but weather and conditions remain good in the US

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* Acreage points to smaller areas for soybean and corn, but with no impact on Chicago
* North American crop conditions remain at good levels: corn reaches best index since 2018
* Weather should continue to be favorable in the coming weeks

Acreage 2025: soybean and corn areas reduced, while wheat area increased


The USDA's expected "Acreage" report for the 2025/26 US crop, released on June 30, focused the market's attention, but had little impact on the direction of soybean, corn and wheat futures contracts traded in Chicago.

This report is surrounded by expectations because it has the potential to bring important changes to the areas planted in the US regarding the "Prospective Plantings" report released in March, since the June report is the first to bring post-planting period estimates.

Despite expectations, the report brought little change, which resulted in figures considered relatively neutral for Chicago, even with some adjustments in opposite directions to those expected by the market.

US Acreage 2025 - in million acres

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Source: Reuters, Hedgepoint

US Acreage 2025 vs March vs Market Expectations - in million acres

                                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Reuters, Hedgepoint



On the corn side, the average market expectation pointed to an area of 95.350 million acres, slightly higher than the March report (95.326 million acres). However, the USDA indicated an area of 95.203 million acres, down regarding March. Even with a different bias than expected, there were no major impacts in Chicago, as the production potential should still point to a record crop in the 2025/26 season.

Regarding soybeans, while the market expected an area of 83.655 million acres, higher than in March (83.495 million acres), the USDA indicated an area of 83.380 million acres, also a cut from the first estimate. As with corn, despite the different bias than expected, the new figure had little impact on Chicago, even with a possible small reduction in US production potential, which at the moment already points to lower production than in the 2024/25 season.

In the case of wheat, the market was expecting an area of 45.438 million acres, slightly higher than in March (45.350 million acres). The USDA confirmed the upward bias, but gave an area of 45.478 million acres, higher than expected. The new figure also had little impact on Chicago.
In general, the Planted Area report continued to point to smaller soybean and wheat areas and a larger corn area regarding the 2024/25 season, with no major changes to current production estimates.

Going forward, the market should closely monitor the weather for the development of the new crop, paying special attention to the condition of North American crops over the next 60 days.


US Crop Conditions: the index improves for corn and remains stable for soybeans


The USDA's weekly crop conditions update for the 2025/26 season indicated a significant improvement in the corn indices and stability in the soybean indices in the last week of June, drawing the market's attention.

According to the USDA, as of June 29 73% of corn crops were in good or excellent condition, the best rate this season and the best rate since the 2018/19 season for this time of year. Last week, the percentage was 70%. At the same time last year, the percentage was 67%. For now, current levels point to a full and possibly record crop this season, which supports the "bearish" sentiment for Chicago in the coming weeks.

US Corn - Crop Conditions - as of June 29 - in %

                                                                                                                                 Source: USDA, Hedgepoint

US Corn Conditions - Top 10 Key States and US - as of June 29 - in %

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: USDA, Hedgepoint



Regarding soybeans, the USDA indicated that 66% of US crops were in good or excellent condition. In the previous week, the percentage was also 66%, while in the same period last year the percentage was 67%. It's noteworthy that while corn saw an improvement, soybean rates remained unchanged. At the moment, current levels indicate a crop without major problems, but with room for reductions in the production potential currently estimated by the USDA.

US Soybeans - Crop Conditions - as of June 29 - in %

                                                                                                                                 Source: USDA, Hedgepoint

US Soybeans Conditions - Top 10 Key States and US - as of June 29 - in %

                                                                                                                                                                                                            Source: USDA, Hedgepoint


Weather: regularity and positive forecasts for the next two weeks


The weather situation continues to be considered very positive in the North American producing belt, providing a favorable environment for crop development.

This past week, between June 29 and July 5, rainfall was recorded in most of the main producing states, which could result in an improvement in the conditions of soybean and corn crops in the next USDA update (Monday, July 7).

Weather Map - Accumulated Precipitation - June 29 to July 5 - in mm

                                                                                                                                                                      Source: NOAA



The forecast maps now point to a period of significant humidity throughout the producing belt between July 6 and 12, which should once again bring a good environment for crops.

In the period between July 13 and 19, the rains should continue to hit the entire belt, but at lower levels than in the previous week.

Weather Map - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast - July 6 to 12 - in mm

                                                                                                                                                                      Source: NOAA

Weather Map - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast - July 13 to 19 - in mm

                                                                                                                                                                      Source: NOAA

Market Intelligence - Grains and Oilseeds


Written by Luiz F. Roque
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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