Sep 22 / Luiz Fernando G. Roque

Planting in Brazil and the weather: what can we expect from the new Brazilian soybean crop?

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Planting work begins for Brazil's new soybean crop


The new Brazilian soybean crop has begun! Planting work for the 2025/26 soybean season has begun in the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso in recent days. Although sowing could already have started in the first week of September in Paraná and the second week of September in Mato Grosso, there was some delay due to the lack of rain, with producers waiting for the arrival of more ample moisture to move forward with planting the first areas. In any case, despite the fact that planting did not begin immediately after the sanitary void was released in these states, there is no great concern regarding the sowing window for the time being.

As of September 19, 1.2% of the projected soybean area had been planted in Brazil. In the same period last year, the percentage was 0.5%, while the average for the last five crops for the period is 1.1%.


Soybean - Brazil - Planting Progress (%) - by state - until September 19

                                                                                                                           Source: Safras


Soybean - Brazil - Planting Progress (%) - until September 19

                                                                                                                                                                                 Source: Safras



Regarding the “sanitary void”, the states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul have also ended their periods and are free to start planting, which could happen this week. Still in the central part of the country, the state of Goiás will be able to start sowing from September 25, while the state of Minas Gerais will be able to start from October 1.

The other states in the South and the North and Northeast will be free to sow between the first and third week of October (except in specific micro-regions).

The tendency is to see a further increase in the Brazilian soybean area in the 2025/26 season, which should bring the potential for another record crop. Despite this, we would point out that the expansion in area is likely to be smaller than in previous years, given that producers' margins are "tighter" due to increased costs and a reduction in average soybean prices regarding other seasons. In any case, Brazil's production potential should approach 180 million tons in 2025/26! If confirmed, this will be the largest production in Brazil's history. But the weather needs to help.

In this sense, it's important to note that it's possible that the La Niña phenomenon will once again affect the Brazilian summer crop. The latest update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) points to a 71% probability of La Niña developing between October, November and December. This deserves attention, as the La Niña phenomenon has a pattern of below-average rainfall in the southern region of Brazil, which puts crops in Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina at risk.

Weather - Probability of El Niño x La Niña x Neutral (%)

                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: NOAA


Brazil weather: forecasts for the coming weeks


Short-term weather maps point to the arrival of rain in a good part of the main producing states in the central belt of the country between September 22 and 28, which should encourage producers to start and move forward with planting work.

Weather - Brazil - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast (mm) - 1 to 7 days

                                                                                                                                                                        Source: NOAA



In the period between September 29 and October 5, less humid weather is expected for the states in the central part of the country, once again worrying producers regarding the germination of the first crops sown.

Weather - Brazil - Accumulated Precipitation Forecast (mm) - 8 to 14 days

                                                                                                                                                                      Source: NOAA



Looking further ahead, the rainfall anomaly map for October points to below-average rainfall in most of the country's main producing states, especially Paraná. 

Weather - Brazil - Precipitation Anomaly Forecast - October (mm)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Tropicaltidbits



Regarding temperatures, the anomaly map points to above-average temperatures in practically the entire country in October, with higher temperatures in some states in the South, Southeast and Midwest.

Weather - Brazil - Temperature Anomaly Forecast - October (ºC)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Tropicaltidbits



Looking ahead to November, the anomaly map points to very mixed weather in the country's main producing states, with rainfall closer to normal in states such as Goiás, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais and Bahia, and below average rainfall in states such as Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo.

Weather - Brazil - Precipitation Anomaly Forecast - November (mm)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Tropicaltidbits



Regarding temperatures, the anomaly map shows that temperatures will continue to be above average in most of the main producing states throughout November, but at lower levels than those expected for October.

Weather - Brazil - Temperature Anomaly Forecast - November (ºC)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Source: Tropicaltidbits


In summary


The weather for planting and developing the new Brazilian soybean crop is now becoming the main factor of attention for the market. The increase in area brings the potential for a new record production in the world's largest soybean producing country, but for this to happen the weather needs to bring favorable conditions for the development of the crops in the last months of 2025 and the first months of 2026. The presence of La Niña brings additional risks that need to be closely monitored in the coming months, but we understand that it is still too early to talk about unfavorable weather. The new season begins with great potential, but also with risks, which deserves extra attention from now on. The season of speculation about the South American weather market is open!

Market Intelligence - Grains and Oilseeds


Written by Luiz F. Roque
Luiz.Roque@hedgepointglobal.com

Revised by Thaís Italiani
www.hedgepointglobal.com

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