World Chocolate Day is becoming more bitter
- On the eve of World Chocolate Day, cocoa futures fell sharply again, accumulating weekly losses of approximately 9% in London and New York by July 3.
- Despite the corrections, commodity prices are still above historical averages, and this year it will be more expensive for consumers to enjoy the special date.
- Although market remains supportive, there is a possibility that cocoa prices to face a bearish trend in the short to medium term.
- Signs of weakening demand, better weather expectations for the coming days in West Africa, and good production performance in other origins reinforce this trend.
World Chocolate Day is becoming more bitter
On the eve of World Chocolate Day (July 7), cocoa futures contracts recorded another sharp drop. After hitting an eight-month low, cocoa closed July 3 at USD 8,101/t in New York and GBP 5,441/t in London, accumulating weekly losses of approximately 9% in both markets.
Despite the corrections, commodity prices are still above historical averages, and this year, celebrating the special date will be more expensive for consumers. Uncertainties regarding the production and quality of the secondary crop in West Africa, mainly in Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer of beans, and the prospect of another cycle with reduced production have impacted global supply and prices over the last few months.
Price variation between World Chocolate Days
Source: LSEG
Indicators such as Europe's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which indirectly reflect consumer prices, show significant increases in the prices of cocoa products in these markets. In Brazil, these items became more expensive in 2025. Products such as chocolate bars and cocoa powder showed a variation above the National Consumer Price Index (INPC).
Europe: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for Cocoa and Powdered Chocolate between World Chocolate Days
Source: Eurostat
US: Producer Price Index (PPI) for Chocolate and Confectionery Manufacturing between World Chocolate Days
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
Brazil: National Consumer Price Index (INPC)
Source: IBGE
There is a possibility of a bearish trend in the medium term, despite the lingering effects of structural problems in West Africa, the possibility of export restriction in Ivory coast and the implications of the EUDR being considered by the market. Due to high prices, demand for cocoa and its by-products is already showing signs of decline, and even with the grinding results of 2025 first quarter being stronger than expected, there are expectations of a further reduction in the next release, scheduled for July 17. In addition, uncertainty remains regarding US tariffs, with some definition expected later this week, as the 90-day pause announced by President Donald Trump ends on July 9.
It is worth noting that total cocoa stocks in London and New York also continue to recover, indicating greater availability of beans. Thus, signs of weakening demand, reinforced by data on cocoa imports from the European Union, the prospect of improved supply, with better weather conditions forecast for West Africa and better production performance in other origins, reinforce the decline in prices and increase the chances of a bearish trend in the global cocoa market in the coming months. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that supply remains tight and that any data on the crop progress in the main producing countries could change market expectations.
Cocoa total and certified stocks – ICE US (‘000 bags)
Source: Eurostat
Cocoa total and valid stocks – ICE EU (‘000 bags)
Source: European Comission
As a result, there is a possibility that the next World Chocolate Day will be sweeter for consumers, but this year prices are still rather bitter.
In Summary
On the eve of World Chocolate Day (July 7), cocoa futures contracts recorded another sharp drop. Despite corrections, commodity prices are still above historical averages, and this year it will be more expensive to celebrate the special date. Problems with grain supply in West Africa, the largest producing region, contributed to the price behavior observed in recent months.
Despite this, there is a possibility of a bearish trend for commodity prices in the medium term. The possibility of a drop in demand, coupled with better weather conditions in West Africa and improved production performance from other sources, reinforces this trend.
Weekly Report — Cocoa
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