
Sugar Market Trends
"Constant downgrades to India’s and Thailand’s sugar output have driven the market up, helping the May contract reach 20 c/lb. Limited unsold stocks in the Brazilian Center-South and high cash premiums further support short-term prices. India’s production downgrade to 29Mt raises long-term bullish signs, while China’s higher production and closed import arbitrage affect demand in the short-term. The market awaits the new Center-South season and potential price corrections in the medium-term."
Sugar Market Trends
- Constant downgrades to India’s and Thailand’s sugar output have driven the market up, helping the May contract reach 20 c/lb.
- Limited stocks in the Brazilian Center-South further support high cash premiums and short-term prices.
- We remain optimistic about Center-South 25/26 crop as the development conditions were better than the ones observed for 24/25 – which is already close to reaching 620Mt.
- India’s production downgrade to 29Mt raises long-term bullish signs, with potential support for the Oct/25 and Mar/26 contracts.
- China’s higher production and closed import arbitrage affect demand, with potential buying triggered if prices drop below 18c/lb.
Continued downgrades to India’s and Thailand’s sugar output have driven the market up, helping the May contract finally reach 20 c/lb on Thursday (20). Additionally, the notion of limited unsold stocks in the Brazilian Center-South contributes to the already anticipated short-term price support. Cash premiums are reportedly high, surpassing 50 points in Santos for April and reaching over 130 points for Thailand Hi-Pol.
Image 1: Raw Sugar Prices (c/lb)

Source: Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
Image 2: Center South Average - soil moisture in the cane areas (mm in top 0-1.6m soil)

Source: Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
Image 3: Sugar Balance - India (Mt Oct-Sep)

Source: ISMA, AISTA, ChiniMandi, NFCSF, Hedgepoint
Image 4: Chinese Estimated Import Arbitrage (USD/t)

Source: Bloomberg, Refinitiv, Hedgepoint
In Summary
Weekly Report — Sugar
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