
What if Center-South has less cane? Let's test it!
"We remain cautious, awaiting May yield data before revising cane volume estimates, currently at 620 Mt. A potential reduction to 605 Mt would tighten the trade surplus and support a more bullish outlook, though a major price rally would likely require a much steeper drop in cane availability."
What if Center-South has less cane? Let's test it!
- Raw sugar prices rebounded slightly after Unica’s mid-May report, which showed strong crushing volumes but left uncertainty about crop health.
- The cumulative crushing gap from 25/26 versus last season widened to nearly 20 Mt, largely due to April/25 delays and leftover cane boosting early 24/25 figures.
- TRS remained 5% below last year, but a record-high sugar mix (51.2%) helped ease concerns about cane quality, with prices failing to sustain their gains.
- A potential 15 Mt reduction in our estimates of cane volume could cut sugar output by 1 Mt, tightening the trade surplus and supporting a more bullish price outlook, but not comparable to levels seen in years of deficit.
- A major price rally would require a much steeper drop in cane availability.
Raw sugar prices regained some ground by the end of last week following Unica’s first half of May results release. The report was somewhat ambiguous, sparking debate about whether it provided enough insight into the crop’s overall health to justify further revisions.
Crushing reached 42.3 Mt, exceeding the 5-year average of 41.5 Mt, but still behind the 24/25 season. The cumulative gap widened to nearly 20 Mt, with 76.7 Mt crushed so far compared to 96.2 Mt during the same period last year. However, two key factors should not be overlooked. First, most of this shortfall stems from the second half of April, which experienced the highest number of estimated lost days for that period. Second, the early part of the 24/25 season benefited from an unusually high volume of leftover cane from 23/24.
Total Recoverable Sugar (TRS) supported a bullish tone, remaining approximately 5% below last year’s levels. On the other hand, the sugar mix gave bears some relief, hitting a record-high (over 51%) for the fortnight and easing concerns about cane quality in terms of sugar content (reducing sugars).
As a result, the market’s reaction was mixed. While April’s yield figures remain the most concerning, the report itself offered little new information on that front. Before making any significant adjustments to cane volume estimates, the market will likely wait for additional data.
Image 1: Raw Sugar's Historical Future Curve Comparison (USc/lb)

Source: LSEG, Hedgepoint
Image 2: CS Estimated Vegetation Health Index

Source: NOAA, Hedgepoint
Image 3: Total Trade Flows – Base Case With 620Mt of cane

Source: Green Pool, Hedgepoint
Image 4: Total Trade Flows – Stressed Scenario With 605Mt of cane

Source: Green Pool, Hedgepoint
In Summary
Weekly Report — Sugar
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